CRB 2–1 America Mineiro: Result & Stats | Serie B

CRB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America Mineiro

Léo Pereira 69', 5'

Rodriguinho 16'

9/29/2024

Serie B · Round 29Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

CRB44%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRBExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.00

CRB

1.33

America Mineiro

1.00

CRB creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.56

creates per match

0.87

1.12

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

CRB

1.56

America Mineiro

0.87

allows per match

CRB

1.12

America Mineiro

1.11

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

CRB-0.02on par

America Mineiro-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CRB or draw

72%

CRB or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

56%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+

21%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals

74%

CRB 2+ goals

38%

CRB 3+ goals

15%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

63%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

26%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)

61%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.56 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + CRB defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CRB scores more

44%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

28%

CRB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

Léo Pereira

CRB · M

9.2

Match Events

5'

16'

38'

46'

46'

62'

Jonathas← Brenner

62'

Adyson← Fabinho

64'

Chay← Gegê

69'

Léo Pereira↳ Chay

72'

Vinícius← Felipe Amaral

79'

Gustavo Henrique← Wanderson

79'

Matheus Ribeiro← Ryan

83'

Chay

85'

Matheus Ribeiro

86'

Rômulo← João Pedro

87'

Thauan Willians← Juninho

89'

Rômulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRBAmerica

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots5

6Corners1

23Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots5

7On Target3

6Off Target2

1Blocked0

9Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

404Total Passes377

329Accurate Passes296

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

23Fouls13

4Yellow Cards0

3Offsides3