America Mineiro 2–1 CRB: Result & Stats | Serie B

America Mineiro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CRB

Fabinho 56'

Juninho 48'

Léo Pereira 19'

6/15/2024

Serie B · Round 10Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

America Mineiro39%

×Draw26%

CRB34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchCRB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

America Mineiro

1.36

CRB

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

1.18

1.31

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.43

CRB

1.18

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

CRB

1.30

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.32scores less

CRB+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

CRB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

66%

America Mineiro or CRB

74%

Draw or CRB

61%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

18%

CRB wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

74%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

39%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

16%

CRB 1+ goals

71%

CRB 2+ goals

36%

CRB 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

53%

CRB (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

CRB away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.43 + CRB defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

CRB attack 1.18 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

America Mineiro scores more

39%

level

26%

CRB scores more

34%

America Mineiro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Fabinho

America Mineiro · M

9.5

Match Events

19'

Léo Pereira↳ João Pedro

35'

Léo Pereira

39'

Matheus Albino

48'

Juninho↳ Fabinho

56'

Fabinho↳ M. Benítez

61'

Mike← Raí

61'

Matheus Ribeiro← Jorge

62'

Adyson← Renato Marques

66'

Gustavo Henrique

78'

Brenner← M. Benítez

78'

Vitor Jacaré← Fabinho

81'

Getúlio← Anselmo Ramon

81'

João Neto← Léo Pereira

85'

Felipe Amaral← Moisés

85'

Wallisson← Juninho

86'

Rômulo← Gegê

87'

João Pedro

90+4'

Daniel Borges

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaCRB

Overview

54%Possession46%

28Total Shots3

3Corners1

13Fouls6

Shots

28Total Shots3

11On Target2

10Off Target1

7Blocked0

14Inside Box1

14Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

506Total Passes423

436Accurate Passes339

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1