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Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
18:45
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
10/20/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 12The Broadfield Stadium
40%
Crawley Town
model favours
40%28%32%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crawley Town40%
×Draw28%
Shrewsbury32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.23
Shrewsbury
1.08

Crawley Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Shrewsbury
0.75

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Shrewsbury
1.17

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Shrewsbury-0.11scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
68%
Crawley Town or Shrewsbury
72%
Draw or Shrewsbury
60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
17%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
71%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
35%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
13%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
66%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
29%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
55%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shrewsbury attack 0.75 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more
40%
level
28%
Shrewsbury scores more
32%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
54%Possession42%
71%Pass accuracy58%
12.7Shots11.5
1.41xGBiggest gap0.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownShrewsbury

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
0–00–12–13–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Crawley Town face Shrewsbury on October 20, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crawley Town host Shrewsbury at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.