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Crawley Town vs Doncaster — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
3/29/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Crawley Town40%
×Draw26%
Doncaster35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.40
Doncaster
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 160 home / 73 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.39
Doncaster
1.38

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Doncaster
1.42

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
65%
Crawley Town or Doncaster
74%
Draw or Doncaster
60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
18%
Doncaster wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
75%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
41%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
17%
Doncaster 1+ goals
72%
Doncaster 2+ goals
37%
Doncaster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
53%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more
40%
level
26%
Doncaster scores more
35%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Doncaster

Doncaster beat Crawley Town 2-0 in League Two on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.