Crawley Town 1–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Doncaster

3/21/2023

League Two · Round 27Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw26%

Doncaster35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.29

Crawley Town

1.40

Doncaster

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 160 home / 73 away

1.39

creates per match

1.38

1.21

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.39

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.21

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

65%

Crawley Town or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Doncaster wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

75%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

41%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

17%

Doncaster 1+ goals

72%

Doncaster 2+ goals

37%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

53%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

35%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff