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Crawley Town vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barrow
Barrow
4/16/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Crawley Town44%
×Draw26%
Barrow29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.42
Barrow
1.10

Crawley Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 138 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.39
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
71%
Crawley Town or Barrow
74%
Draw or Barrow
56%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
21%
Barrow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
76%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
41%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
17%
Barrow 1+ goals
67%
Barrow 2+ goals
30%
Barrow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
60%
Barrow (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barrow attack 0.99 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crawley Town scores more
44%
level
26%
Barrow scores more
29%

Crawley Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crawley Town 1–1 Barrow

Crawley Town and Barrow drew 1-1 in League Two on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.