Barrow 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

11/18/2023

League Two · Round 18SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Barrow44%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Barrow

1.42

Crawley Town

1.10

Barrow creates 29% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 158 away

1.20

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Crawley Town

1.08

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Crawley Town

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

71%

Barrow or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

56%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

21%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

76%

Barrow 2+ goals

41%

Barrow 3+ goals

17%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

67%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

30%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

60%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barrow scores more

44%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

29%

Barrow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff