Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Crawley Town vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Barnsley
Barnsley
8/31/2024League OneLeague One · Round 4Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Crawley Town33%
×Draw25%
Barnsley43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.33
Barnsley
1.56

Barnsley creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 118 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.35
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.52
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
57%
Crawley Town or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
67%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
14%
Barnsley wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
74%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
38%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
15%
Barnsley 1+ goals
79%
Barnsley 2+ goals
46%
Barnsley 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
43%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.35 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Crawley Town defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crawley Town scores more
33%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
43%

Barnsley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Barnsley

Barnsley beat Crawley Town 3-0 in League One on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.