Barnsley 3–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

1/4/2025

League One · Round 25Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Barnsley54%

×Draw22%

Crawley Town24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.21

Barnsley

1.92

Crawley Town

1.21

Barnsley creates 59% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 24 away

1.68

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Barnsley

1.68

Crawley Town

1.13

allows per match

Barnsley

1.30

Crawley Town

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

76%

Barnsley or Crawley Town

78%

Draw or Crawley Town

46%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

31%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

85%

Barnsley 2+ goals

57%

Barnsley 3+ goals

30%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

34%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

69%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Crawley Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Crawley Town attack 1.13 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barnsley scores more

54%

level

22%

Crawley Town scores more

24%

Barnsley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff