Crawley Town 0–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

AFC Wimbledon

8/20/2022

League Two · Round 5Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Crawley Town40%

×Draw28%

AFC Wimbledon32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.08

Crawley Town

1.23

AFC Wimbledon

1.08

Crawley Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 70 away

1.39

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.39

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.21

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

68%

Crawley Town or AFC Wimbledon

72%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

60%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

17%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

35%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

66%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

55%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more

40%

level

28%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

32%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff