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AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
3/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 37The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AFC Wimbledon49%
×Draw26%
Crawley Town26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.54
Crawley Town
1.04

AFC Wimbledon creates 48% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 158 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.46
Crawley Town
1.08

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Crawley Town
1.63

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
74%
AFC Wimbledon or Crawley Town
74%
Draw or Crawley Town
51%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
25%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
79%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
45%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
20%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
65%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
28%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
66%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
49%
level
26%
Crawley Town scores more
26%

AFC Wimbledon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town

Crawley Town beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League Two on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.