Cranborne Bullets 2–1 Bulawayo City: Result & Stats

Cranborne Bullets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bulawayo City

4/2/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cranborne Bullets39%

×Draw36%

Bulawayo City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cranborne BulletsExpected goals in this matchBulawayo City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.65

Cranborne Bullets

0.89

Bulawayo City

0.65

Cranborne Bullets creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

0.65

creates per match

0.38

0.91

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets

0.65

Bulawayo City

0.38

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets

0.91

Bulawayo City

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Bulawayo City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw

75%

Cranborne Bullets or Bulawayo City

64%

Draw or Bulawayo City

61%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

14%

Bulawayo City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

59%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

22%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

6%

Bulawayo City 1+ goals

48%

Bulawayo City 2+ goals

14%

Bulawayo City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

61%

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Bulawayo City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Bulawayo City attack 0.38 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more

39%

level

36%

Bulawayo City scores more

25%

Cranborne Bullets at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cranborne Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff