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Bulawayo City vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
9/10/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 27Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bulawayo City38%
×Draw30%
Cranborne Bullets32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulawayo City
1.10
Cranborne Bullets
0.97

Bulawayo City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bulawayo City
0.88
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Bulawayo City
1.24
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Bulawayo City+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo City ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bulawayo City or draw
68%
Bulawayo City or Cranborne Bullets
70%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
62%

Winning margin

Bulawayo City wins by 2+
16%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bulawayo City 1+ goals
67%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
30%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
10%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
62%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
55%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo City at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo City attack 0.88 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Bulawayo City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bulawayo City scores more
38%
level
30%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
32%

Bulawayo City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulawayo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulawayo City vs Cranborne Bullets

Cranborne Bullets beat Bulawayo City 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.