Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Cracovia Krakow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stal Mielec

D. Szymonowicz 1 90+11'

P.Tomczyk 82'

9/12/2020

Ekstraklasa · Round 3Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cracovia Krakow42%

×Draw25%

Stal Mielec32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia KrakowExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.28

Cracovia Krakow

1.50

Stal Mielec

1.28

Cracovia Krakow creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

1.25

creates per match

1.41

1.15

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.25

Stal Mielec

1.41

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.15

Stal Mielec

1.76

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.18scores more

Stal Mielec-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw

68%

Cracovia Krakow or Stal Mielec

75%

Draw or Stal Mielec

58%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

21%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

78%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

44%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

19%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

72%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

37%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

57%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 23 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.25 + Stal Mielec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stal Mielec attack 1.41 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more

42%

level

25%

Stal Mielec scores more

32%

Cracovia Krakow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Marcin Flis

52'

M. Wdowiak← Rivaldinho

53'

M. Dimun← Thiago

62'

Petteri Forsell

67'

Mateusz Matras

68'

P.Tomczyk← Ł. Zjawiński

76'

F. Piszczek← F. Loshaj

76'

T. Vestenický← S. Hanca

76'

M. Domański← P. Forsell

76'

R. Dadok← M. Mak

82'

84'

86'

88'

90+7'

D. Primel← R. Strączek

90+11'

D. Szymonowicz 1

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CracoviaStal

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots9

3Corners2

20Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target4

5Off Target5

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec

Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 12, 2020.

Goals: P.Tomczyk (82'), D. Szymonowicz 1 (90+11').

Cracovia Krakow controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.

Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec