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Cracovia Kraków II vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Cracovia Kraków II
Cracovia Kraków II
CANC
15:00
Łagów
Łagów
5/24/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Boisko przy ul. Wielickiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cracovia Kraków II40%
×Draw25%
Łagów34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Kraków II
1.45
Łagów
1.31

Cracovia Kraków II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.87
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Cracovia Kraków II
1.27
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Kraków II ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cracovia Kraków II or draw
66%
Cracovia Kraków II or Łagów
75%
Draw or Łagów
60%

Winning margin

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+
19%
Łagów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals
77%
Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals
42%
Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals
18%
Łagów 1+ goals
73%
Łagów 2+ goals
38%
Łagów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)
54%
Łagów (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Kraków II at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.87 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.45

Łagów attack 1.36 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cracovia Kraków II scores more
40%
level
25%
Łagów scores more
34%

Cracovia Kraków II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cracovia Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cracovia Kraków II face Łagów (III Liga - Group 4)

III Liga - Group 4 returns with Cracovia Kraków II hosting Łagów. Match starts May 24, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cracovia Kraków II host Łagów at Boisko przy ul. Wielickiej.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.