Łagów 1–1 Cracovia Kraków II: Result & Stats

Łagów

FT

1 – 1

Cracovia Kraków II

10/17/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów46%

×Draw24%

Cracovia Kraków II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁagówExpected goals in this matchCracovia Kraków II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.35

Łagów

1.72

Cracovia Kraków II

1.35

Łagów creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 71 away

1.78

creates per match

1.42

1.28

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Łagów

1.78

Cracovia Kraków II

1.42

allows per match

Łagów

1.28

Cracovia Kraków II

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par

Cracovia Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Cracovia Kraków II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Łagów or draw

70%

Łagów or Cracovia Kraków II

76%

Draw or Cracovia Kraków II

54%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+

24%

Cracovia Kraków II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals

82%

Łagów 2+ goals

51%

Łagów 3+ goals

25%

Cracovia Kraków II 1+ goals

74%

Cracovia Kraków II 2+ goals

39%

Cracovia Kraków II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)

60%

Cracovia Kraków II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Cracovia Kraków II away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Cracovia Kraków II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.72

Cracovia Kraków II attack 1.42 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Łagów scores more

46%

level

24%

Cracovia Kraków II scores more

30%

Łagów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff