CR Belouizdad 1–0 Olympique Akbou: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Akbou

12/27/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CR Belouizdad52%

×Draw27%

Olympique Akbou21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchOlympique Akbou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.79

CR Belouizdad

1.41

Olympique Akbou

0.79

CR Belouizdad creates 78% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

0.90

0.68

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.69

Olympique Akbou

0.90

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.68

Olympique Akbou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Olympique Akbou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

79%

CR Belouizdad or Olympique Akbou

73%

Draw or Olympique Akbou

48%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

26%

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

76%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

41%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

17%

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals

55%

Olympique Akbou 2+ goals

19%

Olympique Akbou 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

71%

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.68 · 122 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

52%

level

27%

Olympique Akbou scores more

21%

CR Belouizdad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff