CR Belouizdad 1–1 AS AIN Mlila: Result & Stats

CR Belouizdad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AS AIN Mlila

Z. Khali 84'

M. Dahar 9'

11/23/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CR Belouizdad62%

×Draw23%

AS AIN Mlila15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR BelouizdadExpected goals in this matchAS AIN Mlila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.73

CR Belouizdad

1.75

AS AIN Mlila

0.73

CR Belouizdad creates 140% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

0.78

0.69

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

CR Belouizdad

1.69

AS AIN Mlila

0.78

allows per match

CR Belouizdad

0.69

AS AIN Mlila

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

AS AIN Mlila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw

85%

CR Belouizdad or AS AIN Mlila

77%

Draw or AS AIN Mlila

38%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

35%

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

83%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

52%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

25%

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

52%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

17%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

80%

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.69 · 121 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.69 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more

62%

level

23%

AS AIN Mlila scores more

15%

CR Belouizdad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Dahar

19'

M. Tiaïba← R. Ziad

29'

H. Demane← K. Bouhakak

37'

K. Bousseliou← Y. Bechou

44'

L. Tabti← Z. Boulakhoua

62'

B. Hainikoye← A. Djarrar

84'

Z. Khali

86'

C. Siam← M. Dahar

87'

M. Dahar

CR

AS

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Amrani

37'▲K. Bousseliou←▼Y. Bechou

44'▲L. Tabti←▼Z. Boulakhoua

62'▲B. Hainikoye←▼A. Djarrar

CR Belouizdad substitutes

BousseliouTabtiHainikoye

Manager: A. Aït Djoudi

19'▲M. Tiaïba←▼R. Ziad

29'▲H. Demane←▼K. Bouhakak

86'▲C. Siam←▼M. Dahar

AS AIN Mlila substitutes

TiaïbaDemaneSiam

Match Recap: CR Belouizdad vs AS AIN Mlila

CR Belouizdad and AS AIN Mlila drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 23, 2019.

Goals: M. Dahar (9'), Z. Khali (84').

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).

CR Belouizdad vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CR Belouizdad vs AS AIN Mlila