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AS Ain Mlila vs CR Belouizdad — Ligue 1 2018

AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
1/4/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade du 1er novembre 1954 (Batna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS Ain Mlila35%
×Draw33%
CR Belouizdad33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Ain Mlila
0.93
CR Belouizdad
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 123 away

creates per match

AS Ain Mlila
1.09
CR Belouizdad
1.22

allows per match

AS Ain Mlila
0.58
CR Belouizdad
0.77

finishing

AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Ain Mlila ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Ain Mlila or draw
67%
AS Ain Mlila or CR Belouizdad
67%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
65%

Winning margin

AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
12%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
61%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
24%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
7%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
59%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
23%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
51%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Ain Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Ain Mlila attack 1.09 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.93

CR Belouizdad attack 1.22 + AS Ain Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

AS Ain Mlila scores more
35%
level
33%
CR Belouizdad scores more
33%

AS Ain Mlila at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "AS Ain Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: AS Ain Mlila 1–1 CR Belouizdad

AS Ain Mlila and CR Belouizdad drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 1er novembre 1954 (Batna).