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Cowdenbeath vs Cove Rangers — League Two 2018

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
CANC
00:00
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
3/14/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cowdenbeath29%
×Draw21%
Cove Rangers49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
1.54
Cove Rangers
2.05

Cove Rangers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
1.16
Cove Rangers
2.79

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
1.31
Cove Rangers
1.93

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Cove Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
51%
Cowdenbeath or Cove Rangers
79%
Draw or Cove Rangers
71%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
13%
Cove Rangers wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
79%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
45%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
20%
Cove Rangers 1+ goals
87%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
61%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
37%
Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.16 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cove Rangers attack 2.79 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
29%
level
21%
Cove Rangers scores more
49%

Cove Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cowdenbeath face Cove Rangers (League Two)

League Two returns with Cowdenbeath hosting Cove Rangers. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cowdenbeath host Cove Rangers at Central Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.