Cowdenbeath 1–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cove Rangers

D. Cox 86'

7/21/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Central Park (Cowdenbeath)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cowdenbeath35%

×Draw25%

Cove Rangers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.44

Cowdenbeath

1.32

Cove Rangers

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

0.73

creates per match

1.25

1.64

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

0.73

Cove Rangers

1.25

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.64

Cove Rangers

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

60%

Cowdenbeath or Cove Rangers

75%

Draw or Cove Rangers

65%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

15%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

73%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

38%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

15%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

76%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

42%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

46%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 0.73 + Cove Rangers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cove Rangers attack 1.25 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

35%

level

25%

Cove Rangers scores more

40%

Cove Rangers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Redford← C. Milne

62'

K. Renton← M. Scott

73'

E. Watson← R. Strachan

76'

J. Smith← P. McManus

86'

D. Cox

90+2'

P. Scullion← J. Sheerin

Cowdenbeath

Cove

1

5

6

3

2

▼

Milne

4

▼

Strachan

11

Masson

8

Scully

10

▼

7

9

1

3

4

2

5

10

▼

Scott

11

Smith

6

Malcolm

7

⚽

Cox

9

▼

Sheerin

8

Buchanan

Manager: G. Bollan

62'▲K. Renton←▼M. Scott

90+2'▲P. Scullion←▼J. Sheerin

Cowdenbeath substitutes

15Renton14Scullion17Goodfellow18Swan19Muirhead16Miller

Manager: J. Sheran

46'▲A. Redford←▼C. Milne

73'▲E. Watson←▼R. Strachan

76'▲J. Smith←▼P. McManus

Cove Rangers substitutes

15Redford12Watson14Smith17Emmett16Gray21McCafferty