Cowdenbeath 1–1 Broxburn Athletic: Result & Stats

Cowdenbeath

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Broxburn Athletic

D. Cox 73'

N. Locke 87'

10/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd RoundCentral Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cowdenbeath30%

×Draw25%

Broxburn Athletic45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CowdenbeathExpected goals in this matchBroxburn Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.53

Cowdenbeath

1.20

Broxburn Athletic

1.53

Broxburn Athletic creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.40

1.67

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Cowdenbeath

1.50

Broxburn Athletic

1.40

allows per match

Cowdenbeath

1.67

Broxburn Athletic

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Broxburn Athletic →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw

55%

Cowdenbeath or Broxburn Athletic

75%

Draw or Broxburn Athletic

70%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

12%

Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

70%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

34%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

12%

Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals

78%

Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals

45%

Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

40%

Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Broxburn Athletic away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 1.50 + Broxburn Athletic defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

Broxburn Athletic attack 1.40 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more

30%

level

25%

Broxburn Athletic scores more

45%

Broxburn Athletic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

R. Nimmo← G. Binnie

73'

D. Cox↳ J. Pyper

80'

C. Kelly← J. Grant

87'

N. Locke↳ C. Ross

90'

S. Richards← N. Locke

Cowdenbeath

Broxburn

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: G. Bollan

Cowdenbeath substitutes

19Glass12Valentine14Swan16Pollock18Easton15Sneddon17Whyte

Manager: B. McNaughton

71'▲R. Nimmo←▼G. Binnie

80'▲C. Kelly←▼J. Grant

90'▲S. Richards←▼N. Locke

Broxburn Athletic substitutes

14Nimmo12Kelly15Richards16Gibson17Townsley21Donoghue