Broxburn Athletic 3–0 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Broxburn Athletic

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cowdenbeath

C. Kelly 82'

C. Scott 72'

Z. Miller 43' (pen)

10/26/2019

FA Cup · 2nd Round ReplaysAlbyn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Broxburn Athletic59%

×Draw21%

Cowdenbeath20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broxburn AthleticExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.08

Broxburn Athletic

2.04

Cowdenbeath

1.08

Broxburn Athletic creates 89% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

0.60

1.57

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Broxburn Athletic

2.29

Cowdenbeath

0.60

allows per match

Broxburn Athletic

1.57

Cowdenbeath

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broxburn Athletic ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Broxburn Athletic or draw

80%

Broxburn Athletic or Cowdenbeath

79%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

41%

Winning margin

Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+

36%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

Team goals

Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals

87%

Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals

60%

Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals

33%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

66%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

29%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)

75%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Broxburn Athletic at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Broxburn Athletic attack 2.29 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cowdenbeath attack 0.60 + Broxburn Athletic defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Broxburn Athletic scores more

59%

level

21%

Cowdenbeath scores more

20%

Broxburn Athletic at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Z. MillerPenalty

67'

69'

72'

75'

82'

82'

Broxburn

Cowdenbeath

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Miller

▼

Binnie

Manager: B. McNaughton

69'▲R. Nimmo←▼G. Binnie

75'▲S. Richards←▼C. Ross

82'▲C. Kelly←▼Z. Miller

Broxburn Athletic substitutes

14Nimmo15Richards12Kelly17Townsley16Gibson18Hamilton21Donoghue

Manager: G. Bollan

67'▲J. Allan←▼G. Taylor

Cowdenbeath substitutes

16Allan14Easton17Whyte15Sneddon12Valentine19Glass18Pollock

FA Cup: Broxburn Athletic 3–0 Cowdenbeath

Broxburn Athletic beat Cowdenbeath 3-0 in FA Cup on October 26, 2019.

Goals: Z. Miller (43' pen), C. Scott (72'), C. Kelly (82').

The match was played at Albyn Park in Broxburn.

Broxburn Athletic vs Cowdenbeath — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Broxburn Athletic 3–0 Cowdenbeath