Coventry 3–2 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Reading

S. McCallum 85'

M. Godden 76'

G. Hamer 23'

G. Puşcaş 90+2'

Lucas João 66'

10/30/2020

Championship · Round 9St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Coventry49%

×Draw26%

Reading25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.01

Coventry

1.52

Reading

1.01

Coventry creates 50% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 112 away

1.56

creates per match

0.99

1.03

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Coventry

1.56

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Coventry

1.03

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

75%

Coventry or Reading

74%

Draw or Reading

51%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

25%

Reading wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

78%

Coventry 2+ goals

45%

Coventry 3+ goals

20%

Reading 1+ goals

64%

Reading 2+ goals

27%

Reading 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

66%

Reading (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 145 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.56 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reading attack 0.99 + Coventry defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coventry scores more

49%

level

26%

Reading scores more

25%

Coventry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Godden

Coventry · F

8.2

Match Events

23'

G. Hamer↳ M. Godden

38'

Leo Østigård

42'

Gustavo Hamer

66'

Lucas João↳ J. Laurent

73'

C. O'Hare← G. Hamer

76'

M. Godden

79'

Michael Rose

80'

T. Mcintyre← L. Moore

80'

82'

83'

85'

87'

87'

90+2'

G. Puşcaş↳ Lucas João

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryReading

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots14

4Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target7

6Off Target4

4Blocked3

6Inside Box5

8Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

379Total Passes541

291Accurate Passes447

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

5Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1