Coventry 1–1 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

F. Tavares 90+8'

D. Johnson 89' (pen)

2/26/2022

Championship · Round 35The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Coventry54%

×Draw24%

Preston22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.99

Coventry

1.72

Preston

0.99

Coventry creates 74% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 60 away

1.82

creates per match

0.99

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Coventry

0.99

Preston

1.62

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Coventry+0.10scores more

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

78%

Coventry or Preston

76%

Draw or Preston

46%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

30%

Preston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

82%

Coventry 2+ goals

51%

Coventry 3+ goals

25%

Preston 1+ goals

63%

Preston 2+ goals

26%

Preston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

71%

Preston (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.99 · 53 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Preston attack 0.99 + Coventry defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Coventry scores more

54%

level

24%

Preston scores more

22%

Coventry at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Moore

Coventry · G

7.7

Match Events

14'

Josh Earl

17'

Liam Lindsay

32'

Michael Rose

64'

J. Bidwell← M. Waghorn

64'

F. Dabo← T. Kane

69'

Gustavo Hamer

73'

E. Riis← J. Earl

74'

84'

84'

86'

89'

D. JohnsonPenalty

90+2'

Ched Evans

90+4'

F. Tavares← C. OHare

90+6'

R. Ledson← C. Evans

90+1'

Bambo Diaby← C. Archer

90+8'

F. Tavares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryPreston

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots14

4Corners8

10Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target6

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

434Total Passes394

322Accurate Passes270

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

3Offsides1