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Coventry vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Coventry
Coventry
CANC
14:00
Peterborough
Peterborough
4/4/2020League OneLeague One · Round 41St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry40%
×Draw27%
Peterborough33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.29
Peterborough
1.15

Coventry creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 157 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.12
Peterborough
1.46

allows per match

Coventry
0.83
Peterborough
1.46

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
67%
Coventry or Peterborough
73%
Draw or Peterborough
60%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
18%
Peterborough wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
37%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%
Peterborough 1+ goals
68%
Peterborough 2+ goals
32%
Peterborough 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
55%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coventry scores more
40%
level
27%
Peterborough scores more
33%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coventry vs Peterborough — Match Preview

Coventry face Peterborough on April 4, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Coventry host Peterborough at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.