Coventry 1–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

C. Chaplin 90+1'

I. Toney 90'

11/23/2018

League One · Round 19Ricoh Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry40%

×Draw27%

Peterborough33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Coventry

1.29

Peterborough

1.15

Coventry creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 157 away

1.12

creates per match

1.46

0.83

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Coventry

1.12

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Coventry

0.83

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

67%

Coventry or Peterborough

73%

Draw or Peterborough

60%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

18%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

37%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Peterborough 1+ goals

68%

Peterborough 2+ goals

32%

Peterborough 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

55%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coventry scores more

40%

level

27%

Peterborough scores more

33%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Ryan Tafazolli

43'

Conor Chaplin

52'

Alex Woodyard

71'

S. Dembele← M. Maddison

73'

J. Jones← J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

80'

A. Bakayoko← J. Jones

81'

J. Cummings← M. Godden

90'

I. Toney↳ J. Cummings

90+1'

C. Chaplin↳ A. Bakayoko

Coventry

Peterborough

1

5

2

16

23

4

8

9

▼

Godden

17

⚽

Toney

21

▼

15

1

12

2

4

15

8

23

20

18

11

▼

Hiwula-Ma

10

⚽

Chaplin

Manager: M. Robins

73'▲J. Jones←▼J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

80'▲A. Bakayoko←▼J. Jones

Coventry substitutes

7Jones21Bakayoko3Mason5Davies6Kelly16Ogogo33Addai

Manager: S. Evans

71'▲S. Dembele←▼M. Maddison

81'▲J. Cummings←▼M. Godden

Peterborough substitutes

10Dembele35Cummings27Bassong6Walker11Reed19Cooper40Tyler