Coventry 1–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bristol City

J. Bidwell 12'

A. Semenyo 28'

1/1/2023

Championship · Round 26The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 51+ matches

Coventry51%

×Draw25%

Bristol City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

Coventry

1.58

Bristol City

1.00

Coventry creates 58% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 60 away

1.84

creates per match

1.04

0.97

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Coventry

1.84

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Bristol City

1.33

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Coventry+0.14scores more

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

76%

Coventry or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

49%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

26%

Bristol City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

47%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Bristol City 1+ goals

63%

Bristol City 2+ goals

26%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

68%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.97 · 51 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.84 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coventry scores more

51%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

24%

Coventry at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

K. Palmer

Coventry · F

7.6

Match Events

12'

28'

35'

43'

64'

F. Dabo← T. Kane

65'

Fábio Tavares← M. Waghorn

65'

72'

76'

80'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryBristol

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots9

6Corners11

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target2

4Off Target4

6Blocked3

7Inside Box8

9Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

378Total Passes329

265Accurate Passes214

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3