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Bristol City vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
8/24/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Bristol City34%
×Draw26%
Coventry40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.25
Coventry
1.39

Coventry creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.35
Coventry
1.45

allows per match

Bristol City
1.33
Coventry
1.14

finishing

Bristol City+0.08on par
Coventry-0.08on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
60%
Bristol City or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
66%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
14%
Coventry wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
75%
Coventry 2+ goals
40%
Coventry 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
46%
Coventry (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.14 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.35 + Coventry defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.45 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bristol City scores more
34%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Coventry

Bristol City and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.