Coventry 3–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol City

M. Godden 90+2', 51' (pen)

C. O'Hare 74'

A. Weimann 68'

C. Martin 45+1' (pen)

11/6/2021

Championship · Round 17The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Coventry50%

×Draw25%

Bristol City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Coventry

1.58

Bristol City

1.04

Coventry creates 52% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

1.82

creates per match

1.10

0.99

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Coventry

0.99

Bristol City

1.34

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.10scores more

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

75%

Coventry or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

50%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

26%

Bristol City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

47%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

67%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.99 · 53 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Coventry defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coventry scores more

50%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

25%

Coventry at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Godden

Coventry · F

8.2

Match Events

14'

Alex Scott

45'

Ian Maatsen

45+1'

C. MartinPenalty

46'

T. Kane← J. Clarke-Salter

51'

M. GoddenPenalty

63'

Kyle McFadzean

64'

J. Dasilva← A. Scott

68'

A. Weimann↳ C. Martin

71'

T. Walker← V. Gyökeres

74'

81'

81'

85'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryBristol

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots8

8Corners1

15Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots8

6On Target5

3Off Target2

8Blocked1

13Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

495Total Passes343

400Accurate Passes250

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3