Coventry 3–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackburn

B. Thomas-Asante 84'

H. Wright 48'

J. Bidwell 11'

10/1/2024

Championship · Round 8The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Coventry52%

×Draw25%

Blackburn23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.98

Coventry

1.61

Blackburn

0.98

Coventry creates 64% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 54 away

1.83

creates per match

0.99

0.97

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Coventry

1.83

Blackburn

0.99

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Blackburn

1.39

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more

Blackburn+0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

77%

Coventry or Blackburn

75%

Draw or Blackburn

48%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

28%

Blackburn wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

80%

Coventry 2+ goals

48%

Coventry 3+ goals

22%

Blackburn 1+ goals

62%

Blackburn 2+ goals

26%

Blackburn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

69%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Blackburn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Blackburn attack 0.99 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Coventry scores more

52%

level

25%

Blackburn scores more

23%

Coventry at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Bidwell

Coventry · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

E. Mason-Clark← T. Sakamoto

11'

J. Bidwell↳ J. Rudoni

48'

55'

58'

60'

67'

71'

J. Buckley← L. Travis

72'

L. Baker← S. Tronstad

72'

M. Gueye← T. Cantwell

72'

A. Cozier-Duberry← H. Pickering

78'

J. Latibeaudiere← B. Sheaf

81'

John Buckley

84'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ E. Mason-Clark

86'

V. Torp← J. Eccles

87'

E. Simms← B. Thomas-Asante

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryBlackburn

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots10

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.45

5Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots10

8On Target3

5Off Target1

5Blocked6

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

348Total Passes430

245Accurate Passes322

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-1.31Goals Prevented-1.31

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Championship: Coventry 3–0 Blackburn

Coventry beat Blackburn 3-0 in Championship on October 1, 2024.

Goals: J. Bidwell (11'), H. Wright (48'), B. Thomas-Asante (84').

Blackburn controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.

Coventry vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Coventry 3–0 Blackburn