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Blackburn vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
4/27/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Blackburn37%
×Draw27%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.27
Coventry
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 53 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Coventry
1.49

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Coventry
1.24

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
63%
Blackburn or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
63%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
36%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
50%
Coventry (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.49 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more
37%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
37%

Blackburn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
B. CollinsCoventryCoventry · G
9.2

Match Events

50'
Kasey Palmer
62'
Liam Kitching
63'
Y. Ayari← J. Rankin-Costello
65'
J. Latibeaudiere← K. Palmer
72'
J. Allen← J. Eccles
72'
M. Godden← E. Simms
73'
B. Chrisene← H. Pickering
86'
J. Bidwell← C. OHare
86'
A. Dausch← H. Wright
88'
A. Moran← T. Dolan

Possession

50%Blackburn

Shots

30Blackburn

Pass accuracy

49%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnCoventry
Overview
50%Possession50%
30Total Shots6
2.69Expected Goals (xG)0.34
10Corners2
10Fouls9
Shots
30Total Shots6
8On Target1
12Off Target3
10Blocked2
19Inside Box3
11Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
421Total Passes437
307Accurate Passes330
73%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Championship: Blackburn 0–0 Coventry

Blackburn and Coventry drew 0-0 in Championship on April 27, 2024.

Blackburn controlled possession (50%) and registered 30 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.