Cove Rangers 3–2 Brechin: Result & Stats

Cove Rangers

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Brechin

J. Masson 54'

M. Megginson 48', 13' (pen)

M. Scott 90+2' (pen), 62'

3/7/2020

League Two · Round 28Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cove Rangers73%

×Draw17%

Brechin10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cove RangersExpected goals in this matchBrechin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.77

Cove Rangers

2.40

Brechin

0.77

Cove Rangers creates 212% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

2.64

creates per match

1.04

0.50

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Cove Rangers

2.64

Brechin

1.04

allows per match

Cove Rangers

0.50

Brechin

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Brechin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw

90%

Cove Rangers or Brechin

83%

Draw or Brechin

27%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

50%

Brechin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

91%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

69%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

42%

Brechin 1+ goals

54%

Brechin 2+ goals

18%

Brechin 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

88%

Brechin (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 2.64 + Brechin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.40

Brechin attack 1.04 + Cove Rangers defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Cove Rangers scores more

73%

level

17%

Brechin scores more

10%

Cove Rangers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. MegginsonPenalty

22'

R. McCord

45+4'

D. Hill

45'

B. Yule← R. McAllister

48'

M. Megginson↳ D. Higgins

54'

J. Masson↳ M. Megginson

59'

J. Page

59'

P. Allan← K. Inglis

60'

A. Petkov

62'

M. Scott↳ S. McIntosh

78'

L. Duncanson← L. Strachan

82'

A. Meekison← J. Masson

82'

A. Jackson← S. McIntosh

90+2'

M. ScottPenalty

Cove

Brechin

1

5

6

4

10

8

2

A

▼

McIntosh

11

▼

Inglis

3

▼

Strachan

9

⚽2

7

1

5

6

12

A

Higgins

3

Milne

24

Fyvie

11

⚽

▼

Masson

4

Scully

20

▼

McAlliste

9

⚽2A

Megginson

10

Watson

Manager: P. Hartley

45'▲B. Yule←▼R. McAllister

82'▲A. Meekison←▼J. Masson

Cove Rangers substitutes

8Yule22Meekison17Redman21McCafferty18Brown7Mulligan2Leighton

Manager: M. Wilson

59'▲P. Allan←▼K. Inglis

78'▲L. Duncanson←▼L. Strachan

82'▲A. Jackson←▼S. McIntosh

Brechin substitutes

15Allan12Duncanson17Jackson18McManus16Watt14Reekie21O'Neil