Brechin 2–3 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Brechin

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Cove Rangers

E. Loudon 39' (pen)

G. McGrath 30'

K. Connell 81', 74'

M. Reynolds 34'

7/22/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brechin20%

×Draw19%

Cove Rangers61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrechinExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.35

Brechin

1.27

Cove Rangers

2.35

Cove Rangers creates 85% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

0.62

creates per match

1.25

3.46

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Brechin

0.62

Cove Rangers

1.25

allows per match

Brechin

3.46

Cove Rangers

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brechin or draw

39%

Brechin or Cove Rangers

81%

Draw or Cove Rangers

80%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+

8%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals

72%

Brechin 2+ goals

36%

Brechin 3+ goals

14%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

90%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

68%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)

24%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.62 + Cove Rangers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cove Rangers attack 1.25 + Brechin defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Brechin scores more

20%

level

19%

Cove Rangers scores more

61%

Cove Rangers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

G. McGrath↳ F. MacLeod

34'

M. Reynolds

39'

E. LoudonPenalty

56'

M. Megginson

61'

J. Kerr← M. Niang

71'

I. Vigurs← M. Gallagher

74'

K. Connell↳ M. Megginson

81'

K. Connell↳ J. Kerr

84'

S. Heenan← S. Patrick

88'

I. Vigurs

89'

L. Martin

Brechin

Cove

1

Suman

26

⚽

15

6

4

22

▼

Gallagher

5

▼

Niang

18

Mykyta

9

A

Megginson

11

⚽2

10

23

4

6

5

12

7

11

A

MacLeod

8

▼

Patrick

18

⚽

Loudon

17

Moreland

9

⚽

McGrath

Manager: A. Kirk

84'▲S. Heenan←▼S. Patrick

Brechin substitutes

15Heenan2Mudie19White1Wilson16McArthur

Manager: P. Hartley

61'▲J. Kerr←▼M. Niang

71'▲I. Vigurs←▼M. Gallagher

Cove Rangers substitutes

17Kerr16Vigurs21Demus20Gaffney12Ochmanski