Covadonga 1–3 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Covadonga

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Real Oviedo II

Jaime Álvarez 60' (pen)

Ton Ripoll 90', 72'

Javi Cueto 66'

10/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Covadonga41%

×Draw25%

Real Oviedo II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CovadongaExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.39

Covadonga

1.55

Real Oviedo II

1.39

Covadonga creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

1.85

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Covadonga

1.23

Real Oviedo II

0.92

allows per match

Covadonga

1.85

Real Oviedo II

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw

66%

Covadonga or Real Oviedo II

75%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

59%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+

20%

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals

79%

Covadonga 2+ goals

46%

Covadonga 3+ goals

20%

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

75%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

40%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)

55%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.23 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Oviedo II attack 0.92 + Covadonga defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Covadonga scores more

41%

level

25%

Real Oviedo II scores more

34%

Covadonga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

J. Guerra

60'

Guille Bernabéu← Álex Suárez

60'

Ton Ripoll← Aitor Lorea

60'

Jaime ÁlvarezPenalty

62'

Manuel Pozo← Edu Font

66'

Javi Cueto

72'

Asier Gomes← David González

72'

Javier Martón← Sergio Ríos

72'

Ton Ripoll

87'

Jordi Avilés← Javi Cueto

90+1'

Eloy← Vander

90'

Ton Ripoll

Covadonga

Real

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Fermín Álvarez

62'▲Manuel Pozo←▼Edu Font

72'▲Asier Gomes←▼David González

72'▲Javier Martón←▼Sergio Ríos

Covadonga substitutes

PozoGomesMartónElenaRíoTorresBlancoRodríguezTineo

Manager: Emilio Cañedo

60'▲Guille Bernabéu←▼Álex Suárez

60'▲Ton Ripoll←▼Aitor Lorea

87'▲Jordi Avilés←▼Javi Cueto

90+1'▲Eloy←▼Vander

Real Oviedo II substitutes

BernabéuRipollAvilésEloySarrMarotíasPacoliSteven