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Cova De Piedade vs Arouca — Segunda Liga 2018

Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arouca
Arouca
11/3/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 8Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira (Almada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cova De Piedade32%
×Draw28%
Arouca39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cova De Piedade
1.07
Arouca
1.21

Arouca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cova De Piedade
1.00
Arouca
1.18

allows per match

Cova De Piedade
1.24
Arouca
1.15

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw
61%
Cova De Piedade or Arouca
72%
Draw or Arouca
68%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
13%
Arouca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
66%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
29%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
9%
Arouca 1+ goals
70%
Arouca 2+ goals
34%
Arouca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
45%
Arouca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Arouca away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Arouca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Arouca attack 1.18 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more
32%
level
28%
Arouca scores more
39%

Arouca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cova De Piedade 1 – 0 Arouca

Cova De Piedade beat Arouca 1-0 in Segunda Liga on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira (Almada).