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Arouca vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Arouca
Arouca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
2/27/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 22Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Arouca51%
×Draw27%
Cova De Piedade22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arouca
1.46
Cova De Piedade
0.87

Arouca creates 68% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

creates per match

Arouca
1.29
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Arouca
0.91
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Arouca+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arouca or draw
78%
Arouca or Cova De Piedade
73%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
49%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+
26%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals
77%
Arouca 2+ goals
43%
Arouca 3+ goals
18%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
58%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
22%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)
69%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 1.29 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Arouca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arouca scores more
51%
level
27%
Cova De Piedade scores more
22%

Arouca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arouca vs Cova De Piedade

Arouca beat Cova De Piedade 2-1 in Segunda Liga on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.