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Cova De Piedade vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
8/15/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 1Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cova De Piedade33%
×Draw26%
Alverca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cova De Piedade
1.23
Alverca
1.40

Alverca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cova De Piedade
1.21
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Cova De Piedade
1.43
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw
59%
Cova De Piedade or Alverca
74%
Draw or Alverca
67%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
14%
Alverca wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
71%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
35%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
13%
Alverca 1+ goals
75%
Alverca 2+ goals
41%
Alverca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
45%
Alverca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 1.21 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alverca attack 1.38 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more
33%
level
26%
Alverca scores more
41%

Alverca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Cova De Piedade 2–1 Alverca

Cova De Piedade beat Alverca 2-1 in Liga 3 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.