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Alverca vs Cova De Piedade — Liga 3 2021

Alverca
Alverca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
12/12/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 12Campo Futebol Clube Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alverca51%
×Draw27%
Cova De Piedade22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alverca
1.46
Cova De Piedade
0.85

Alverca creates 72% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alverca
1.49
Cova De Piedade
1.00

allows per match

Alverca
0.71
Cova De Piedade
1.43

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alverca or draw
78%
Alverca or Cova De Piedade
73%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
49%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+
26%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals
77%
Alverca 2+ goals
43%
Alverca 3+ goals
18%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
57%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
21%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)
70%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alverca scores more
51%
level
27%
Cova De Piedade scores more
22%

Alverca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alverca vs Cova De Piedade

Alverca beat Cova De Piedade 2-0 in Liga 3 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Futebol Clube Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo.