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Cova De Piedade vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
T. Cele 69'
Willyan 35'
K. N'Sor 88'
4/6/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 28Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira (Almada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Cova De Piedade35%
×Draw28%
Academico Viseu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cova De Piedade
1.18
Academico Viseu
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 133 away

creates per match

Cova De Piedade
0.98
Academico Viseu
1.16

allows per match

Cova De Piedade
1.25
Academico Viseu
1.38

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw
63%
Cova De Piedade or Academico Viseu
72%
Draw or Academico Viseu
65%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
15%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
69%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
33%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
12%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
70%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
34%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
49%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 0.98 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.18

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more
35%
level
28%
Academico Viseu scores more
37%

Academico Viseu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Willyan
69'
T. Cele
88'
K. N'Sor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cova De Piedade vs Academico Viseu

Cova De Piedade beat Academico Viseu 2-1 in Segunda Liga on April 6, 2019.

Goals: Willyan (35'), T. Cele (69'), K. N'Sor (88').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira (Almada).