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Academico Viseu vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
10/18/2020Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 6Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Academico Viseu48%
×Draw27%
Cova De Piedade25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
1.45
Cova De Piedade
0.97

Academico Viseu creates 49% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 46 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.27
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Academico Viseu
1.10
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
75%
Academico Viseu or Cova De Piedade
73%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
52%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
24%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
77%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
42%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
18%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
62%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
25%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
66%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
48%
level
27%
Cova De Piedade scores more
25%

Academico Viseu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academico Viseu vs Cova De Piedade

Cova De Piedade beat Academico Viseu 2-0 in Segunda Liga on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.