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Cosenza vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Cosenza
Cosenza
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lecce
Lecce
11/10/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 12San Vito-Gigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cosenza33%
×Draw28%
Lecce39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosenza
1.12
Lecce
1.25

Lecce creates 12% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cosenza
1.06
Lecce
1.44

allows per match

Cosenza
1.07
Lecce
1.18

finishing

Cosenza+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cosenza or draw
61%
Cosenza or Lecce
72%
Draw or Lecce
67%

Winning margin

Cosenza wins by 2+
13%
Lecce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cosenza 1+ goals
67%
Cosenza 2+ goals
31%
Cosenza 3+ goals
10%
Lecce 1+ goals
71%
Lecce 2+ goals
36%
Lecce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cosenza (draw refunded)
46%
Lecce (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza attack 1.06 + Lecce defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Lecce attack 1.44 + Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cosenza scores more
33%
level
28%
Lecce scores more
39%

Lecce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cosenza 2 – 3 Lecce

Lecce beat Cosenza 3-2 in Serie B on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at San Vito-Gigi Marulla in Cosenza.