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Corvinul Hunedoara vs Arges Pitesti — Liga II 2018

Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
3/9/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 18Stadionul Michael Klein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Corvinul Hunedoara47%
×Draw29%
Arges Pitesti24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.29
Arges Pitesti
0.83

Corvinul Hunedoara creates 55% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

creates per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.66
Arges Pitesti
1.03

allows per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
0.64
Arges Pitesti
0.92

finishing

Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corvinul Hunedoara ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Corvinul Hunedoara or draw
76%
Corvinul Hunedoara or Arges Pitesti
71%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
53%

Winning margin

Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
22%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
72%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
37%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
14%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
56%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
20%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
66%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corvinul Hunedoara at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.66 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
47%
level
29%
Arges Pitesti scores more
24%

Corvinul Hunedoara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Corvinul Hunedoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Arges Pitesti

Corvinul Hunedoara beat Arges Pitesti 2-0 in Liga II on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Michael Klein in Hunedoara.