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Arges Pitesti vs Corvinul Hunedoara — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
9/28/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Arges Pitesti42%
×Draw28%
Corvinul Hunedoara30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.31
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.05

Arges Pitesti creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 42 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.38

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.00

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Corvinul Hunedoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
70%
Arges Pitesti or Corvinul Hunedoara
72%
Draw or Corvinul Hunedoara
58%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
19%
Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
73%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
38%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
14%
Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
65%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
28%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
59%
Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Corvinul Hunedoara away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.38 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
42%
level
28%
Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
30%

Arges Pitesti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Arges Pitesti 0–1 Corvinul Hunedoara

Corvinul Hunedoara beat Arges Pitesti 1-0 in Liga II on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.