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Cortuluá W vs Atlético Nacional W — Liga Femenina 2020

Cortuluá W
Cortuluá W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Nacional W
Atlético Nacional W
4/19/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 11Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cortuluá W32%
×Draw30%
Atlético Nacional W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortuluá W
1.01
Atlético Nacional W
1.13

Atlético Nacional W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cortuluá W
1.06
Atlético Nacional W
1.32

allows per match

Cortuluá W
0.94
Atlético Nacional W
0.96

finishing

Cortuluá W+0.00on par
Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortuluá W ↓

Atlético Nacional W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cortuluá W or draw
62%
Cortuluá W or Atlético Nacional W
70%
Draw or Atlético Nacional W
68%

Winning margin

Cortuluá W wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cortuluá W 1+ goals
64%
Cortuluá W 2+ goals
27%
Cortuluá W 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cortuluá W (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortuluá W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortuluá W attack 1.06 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Cortuluá W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cortuluá W scores more
32%
level
30%
Atlético Nacional W scores more
38%

Atlético Nacional W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cortuluá W vs Atlético Nacional W

Cortuluá W and Atlético Nacional W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo in Yumbo.