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Atlético Nacional W vs Cortuluá W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Nacional W
Atlético Nacional W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cortuluá W
Cortuluá W
2/27/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Nacional W60%
×Draw22%
Cortuluá W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Nacional W
1.88
Cortuluá W
0.91

Atlético Nacional W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W
1.93
Cortuluá W
1.12

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W
0.70
Cortuluá W
1.82

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par
Cortuluá W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Cortuluá W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw
82%
Atlético Nacional W or Cortuluá W
78%
Draw or Cortuluá W
40%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+
35%
Cortuluá W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals
29%
Cortuluá W 1+ goals
60%
Cortuluá W 2+ goals
23%
Cortuluá W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)
77%
Cortuluá W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Cortuluá W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Cortuluá W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Cortuluá W attack 1.12 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more
60%
level
22%
Cortuluá W scores more
18%

Atlético Nacional W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Nacional W 3–1 Cortuluá W

Atlético Nacional W beat Cortuluá W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.