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Cortulua vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
11/14/2020Primera BPrimera B · Round 17Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cortulua52%
×Draw26%
Real Cartagena21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.48
Real Cartagena
0.84

Cortulua creates 76% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 160 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
79%
Cortulua or Real Cartagena
74%
Draw or Real Cartagena
48%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
27%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
77%
Cortulua 2+ goals
43%
Cortulua 3+ goals
19%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
57%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
21%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
71%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 160 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cortulua scores more
52%
level
26%
Real Cartagena scores more
21%

Cortulua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cortulua 1–0 Real Cartagena

Cortulua beat Real Cartagena 1-0 in Primera B on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.