Cortulua 0–2 Internacional de Bogota

Cortulua

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Bogota

P. Lima 71' (pen)

F. Chaverra 4'

4/25/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cortulua34%

×Draw30%

Internacional de Bogota35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.05

Cortulua

1.03

Internacional de Bogota

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 169 away

0.66

creates per match

0.91

1.19

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Cortulua

0.66

Internacional de Bogota

0.91

allows per match

Cortulua

1.19

Internacional de Bogota

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

65%

Cortulua or Internacional de Bogota

70%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

66%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

13%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

64%

Cortulua 2+ goals

28%

Cortulua 3+ goals

9%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

65%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

28%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

49%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.66 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.91 + Cortulua defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Cortulua scores more

34%

level

30%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

35%

Internacional de Bogota at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

F. Chaverra

Internacional de Bogota · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

F. Chaverra↳ J. Estupiñan

19'

E. Laszo← J. Mina

38'

Francisco Chaverra

45'

Juan Manuel Valencia

46'

F. Mercado← A. Castillo

54'

Andres Felipe Rivera Lozano

64'

Andres CorreaGoal confirmed

66'

Jean Colorado

66'

Juan Mosquera← A. Rivera

71'

P. LimaPenalty

72'

J. Lobo← J. Valencia

73'

K. Valencia← J. Bocanegra

80'

C. Rivas← F. Chaverra

80'

J. Mahecha← S. Motta

80'

A. Torralvo← J. Estupiñan

82'

Carlos Rivas

90+1'

J. Rojas← I. Alba

90+2'

K. Salazar← F. Gil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CortuluaInternacional

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots6

8Corners5

10Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots6

2On Target4

10Off Target2

1Blocked0

6Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

410Total Passes226

329Accurate Passes141

80%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls20

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2