Cortulua 2–0 Internacional de Bogota

Cortulua

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

7/9/2016

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Doce De Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cortulua38%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Bogota33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.08

Cortulua

1.17

Internacional de Bogota

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 171 away

0.92

creates per match

0.90

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Cortulua

0.92

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

allows per match

Cortulua

1.26

Internacional de Bogota

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

67%

Cortulua or Internacional de Bogota

71%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

62%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

16%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

69%

Cortulua 2+ goals

33%

Cortulua 3+ goals

11%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

66%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

29%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

53%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.92 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Cortulua defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cortulua scores more

38%

level

29%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

33%

Cortulua at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff