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Cortulua vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
4/10/2023Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 11Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cortulua48%
×Draw27%
Fortaleza FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.38
Fortaleza FC
0.90

Cortulua creates 53% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 107 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Fortaleza FC
1.03

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Fortaleza FC
1.14

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
75%
Cortulua or Fortaleza FC
73%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
52%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
23%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
75%
Cortulua 2+ goals
40%
Cortulua 3+ goals
16%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
59%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
23%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
66%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fortaleza FC attack 1.03 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cortulua scores more
48%
level
27%
Fortaleza FC scores more
25%

Cortulua at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cortulua 0–1 Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC beat Cortulua 1-0 in Primera B on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo in Yumbo.